A new best practice guide from CBI Wales, Healthy Working Wales (Public Health Wales) and the Bevan Commission calls for action from employers, warning that a shrinking workforce and declining health will hit productivity, recruitment, and resilience across the country.
Welsh businesses are being urged to confront a looming economic crisis driven by a “demographic time bomb” and a sharp decline in the nation’s workforce health.
The ‘Employee Health and Wellbeing’ Best Practice Guide, published in partnership by the Bevan Commission, CBI Wales, and Healthy Working Wales, lays out the scale of the challenge. It warns that by 2045, the ratio of working-age people to those over 65 will plummet from 3:1 to just 2:1.[1]
This demographic shift is compounded by projections of soaring disease rates, including a 70% rise in dementia[2] and a 33% increase in major illness[3] over the next two decades.
The leaders behind the guide say this is not a future problem, but an urgent issue impacting businesses today, with sickness absences predicted to cost the Welsh economy £1.4 billion annually.[4]
The guide argues that while life expectancy is increasing, the number of years people live in good health is falling, creating a perfect storm of greater demands on a smaller, less healthy workforce.
Dr. Helen Howson, Director of the Bevan Commission, highlighted the important role employers must play in a sustainable future for both the economy and public services.
“The health of our people and the health of our economy are intrinsically linked,” Howson said. “For too long, we have seen health as something the NHS fixes when it goes wrong. We must shift to a model of prevention and shared responsibility, and the workplace is the front line for that change.
“By taking shared action, employers can not only improve the lives of their staff but also ease the immense pressure on our public services. This is about creating a virtuous circle for a healthier, stronger Wales.”
The guide moves beyond warnings to provide a practical framework for businesses of all sizes. It includes tips on embedding wellbeing into corporate strategy, training managers to handle sensitive conversations, and creating healthy work environments.
The guide concludes with a clear message: supporting employee wellbeing isn’t just good for people, it is essential for business survival and the future prosperity of Wales.
[1] Welsh Government, ‘National population projections: 2022‑based’ (GOV.WALES, 28 January 2025) https://www.gov.wales/national-population-projections-2022-based-html accessed 16 July 2025.
[2] Rebekah James, ‘Planning ahead: dementia services in Wales’ (Senedd Research, 24 May 2023) https://research.senedd.wales/research-articles/planning-ahead-dementia-services-in-wales/ accessed 16 July 2025.
[3] Technical Advisory Cell, Estimated burden of disease in 2040 (Welsh Government, 22 July 2024) https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2024-07/estimated-burden-of-disease-in-2040.pdf accessed 16 July 2025.
[4] Modelled on an estimated 11.6 million working days lost in Wales in 2022 (ONS) and applying CIPD-derived cost estimates (a direct employer cost ~ £56/ day and wider economic cost of ~£120 per day.
